The expectations for Greg Berhalter and the United States at the 2022 FIFA World Cup are clear: anything less than knockout stage qualification is a failure.
In the modern format of the FIFA World Cup, the United States has been eliminated from the group stage three times since 1990 and qualified for the knockout stage three times.
Fans will see group stage elimination as the USMNT’s underdog, and failing to qualify for the knockout rounds, despite being handed one of the toughest group draws in the entire World Cup field, is not an acceptable option.
With the United States co-hosting the 2026 World Cup and one of the tournament’s youngest rosters in 2022, there is a sense of building for the tournament four years from now. However, a performance at this year’s FIFA showcase is also expected, and Berhalter will be well aware of the expectations.
Pressure is a privilege.#USMNT x @Visa pic.twitter.com/2qsuKo1jhP
— U.S. Men's National Soccer Team (@USMNT) November 21, 2022
What does the USMNT need to qualify for the World Cup knockouts?
With just one game remaining in Group B, the task for the United States is clear: a win against Iran in the final game of the group stage, and they’re through to the knockout stages. Draw or lose, and they’re out. It’s not more complicated than that.
The draw against England was a valuable point, as it gave the USA complete control of their own destiny in their final match, regardless of the outcome of the next match (England vs Wales).
Had they failed to secure a point against England, they would have had to worry about goal difference, but with the point, it is no longer a concern. Defeated Iran and reached the knockout stage. Lose or draw, and they’re out. It’s not more complicated than that.
Group B standings at the 2022 World Cup
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
| 1. England | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 |
| 2. Iran | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| 3. USA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4. Wales | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
How many points does a team usually need to qualify?
Mathematically, six digits are always the goal. Six points don’t guarantee a team a spot in the knockout rounds, but it’s a clear threshold. In the history of the FIFA World Cup, no team has been eliminated from the group stage with 6 points.
In theory, it is possible for three teams to finish on six points and therefore leave one team on the outside looking in on the tiebreakers, but this almost never happens. It’s also happened at the World Cup — in 1994, Nigeria, Bulgaria and Argentina had six points while Greece had zero, but the third-highest finishers in that tournament also reached the knockout stages, so Argentina was safe. . Famously, at 2001 FIFA Confederations Cup, South Korea was eliminated in a three-team six-point mash-up, behind France and Australia, but this is an extreme rarity.
Five digits still do the trick. No team in World Cup history has been eliminated from the knockout stages in the modern format with five points from a four-team group. In 1978, Brazil finished second in their second-round group with five points, but that year, the second-place finishers qualified for the playoffs, so they went to the third-place match.
Four points where things start to get scary. In the 2018 World Cup, the two teams squared off on four points, although one of them went down to fair play points to settle a bad tiebreaker. In the 2014 World Cup as well, two teams were eliminated by four points. Often, with four points, tiebreakers like goal difference can be involved, and neither team wants to be there.
Three points is almost impossible. In order to advance from the group stage with only three points, one team needs to dominate the group and steal the other possible points. Mathematically, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where this leads to a qualification, as it would require three points via a draw, or a three-point plus tiebreaker advantage over one of the teams that defeated the country in question.
At the 1998 World Cup, three points were not enough for Chile to qualify for the knockout stages of the World Cup after three draws against Austria and Cameroon, while Italy dominated the group.
Odds for USA to qualify for World Cup knockout stage
The United States is aiming to reach the knockout stages of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Anything less would be considered a disappointment and could have long-term ramifications for the coaching staff and players.
The United States, however, is in a tough battle to avoid Group B, which includes England, Wales, and Iran. According to the odds, the USA and Wales are almost a coin toss in who will qualify for the knockout stages, edging out heavy favorites England.
The opening draw between the USA and Wales increased the pressure on both to take care of business against Iran and try to earn some sort of result against England.