Steve Shurtleff was at Joe Biden’s side in 2019 when he filed his presidential nomination at the New Hampshire State House.
He has repeatedly trekked across the state with Biden to woo primary voters. And when Biden eventually won the presidency, it was Democratic State House Speaker Shurtleff who proudly sealed New Hampshire’s four electoral votes – including his own – for the US Senate.
But on the eve of a new election season, Shurtleff, like most Democrats across the country, feels one term is enough.
“In my heart of hearts, no,” Shurtleff said when asked if he would like Biden to run again. “I think a lot of people don’t want to say it.”
Democrats in New Hampshire are upset with the Democratic president for trying to end the state’s status as home for the nation’s first presidential primary. But their concerns about Biden are in line with a majority of Democratic voters nationwide, who question the 80-year-old president’s plans to launch his campaign too soon.
Only 37% of Democrats nationwide want the president to seek a second term, according to a poll released last month by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That was down from 52% in the weeks before last year’s midterm elections.
Many are concerned about Biden’s age. Others, like Shurtleff, are troubled by the administration’s disorganized withdrawal from Afghanistan. And the party’s progressive wing has never been enthused about Biden, who is considered a moderate despite his long list of accomplishments.
The White House exaggerated Biden’s perceived weakness within his own party by pointing out that he has been proven wrong time and time again.
“We know pundits’ attitude toward President Biden is unchanged since 2004 as he earned the nomination faster than anyone before, won the most votes in American history, built the strongest legislative record in generations and led the way for a new Democratic led to the best mid-term result. president in 60 years,” said Biden spokesman Andrew Bates. “Based on a comparison of the accuracy of our versus their predictions, we are pleased to see this dynamic continue.”
Still, there is a risk of a disconnect between rank-and-file Democrats and the party establishment. While voters are indicating unease about the prospect of another Biden campaign, Democratic governors, senators and congressional representatives are nearly unanimous in supporting Biden’s re-election.
An exception may be New Hampshire, a small swing state whose electoral votes could be crucial in a tight general election. The state has challenged Biden before.
Voters here placed Biden an embarrassing fifth place in the 2020 Democratic primary. The New Hampshire elections were still open when he left for South Carolina, where his presidential ambitions had been revived by a decisive victory. That state is now Biden’s choice to lead the 2024 presidential primary calendar.
Interviews with disgruntled New Hampshire Democrats in state government and local Democratic committees suggest there is some appetite for a serious primary challenger in 2024. But the top-tier prospects don’t seem interested.
So far, only Democratic activist and author Marianne Williamson has entered the 2024 primary field. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the son of the late New York senator and known for railing against vaccines, met with New Hampshire voters on Friday. He’s also leaning towards a dialect.
But the likes of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is Biden’s fiercest primary challenger in 2020, has vowed to back the president in 2024. Illinois Gov. J.B. Representative Ro Khanna of California, a progressive favorite, has also said he will not challenge Biden, though he has been a vocal advocate for New Hampshire’s place on the primary calendar.
In an interview, Khanna said it was “political malpractice” for the Democratic National Committee, under Biden’s direction, to jeopardize New Hampshire’s position.
Khanna said, “New Hampshire is a state where retail politics still matter and where voters have freedoms that cannot be controlled by the party establishment in DC.” The primary shakeup “could cost us four electoral votes and hurt our chances of winning in the 2024 election.”
Meanwhile, Biden’s aides privately believe the primary dispute will be long forgotten by the time voters cast ballots in November 2024, especially with former President Donald Trump or one of his Republican retainers on the ballot.
Biden supporters also noted that some of the nation’s most popular two-term presidents faced opposition within their own parties ahead of their re-election.
President Ronald Reagan faced a backlash from disgruntled Republicans leading up to the 1984 contest, which took place in the U.S.