On Thursday mornings, thousands of early risers either tune in or bundle up to watch the Punxsutawney fill the treetops and watch the weather forecast.
The groundhog—arguably the most famous member of his species and the best-known of all the country’s animal prognosticators—does what he’s done for the past 137 years: look for signs of spring in front of a group of top-hatted handlers. And loving fans in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania.
Unfortunately, on this winter morning, he didn’t find it.
“I see a shadow on my stage, and so how do you measure, it’s six weeks of winter,” a handler read Phil’s chosen scroll.
If Phil sees his shadow, North America has a tradition of six more weeks of winter and if he doesn’t, it’s an early spring. The stats don’t say much: Phil’s accuracy rate has been around 40% over the last decade.
Also, human meteorologists have more advanced methods of predicting the weather now than they did in 1887 when Phil first got the gig.
So, why do we keep searching for answers year after year on February 2? (Some might say it’s almost like the 1993 comedy “Groundhog Day” … or exactly like that.)
There’s a lot we can learn about both our climate and our culture from Groundhog Day, several experts told NPR.
Daniel Blumstein is a professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at UCLA who studies marmots, a group of 15 species of large ground squirrels that includes groundhogs. His department always has a Groundhog Day party, even in perennially sunny Los Angeles—but he says you don’t have to be a “groundhog enthusiast” (as he describes himself) to get something out of the day.
“I hope that people will appreciate marmots and nature more, and I hope that people will laugh at the idea that it is the middle of winter and we hope that the mouse will tell us what the future holds,” says. Blumstein.
Groundhog Day has its roots in ancient Midwinter celebrations
How did the US celebrate Groundhog Day in the first place?
It dates back to ancient traditions — first pagan, then Christian — marking the halfway point between the winter solstice and spring equinox, says Penn State University history professor Troy Harman, who also works as a ranger at Gettysburg National Military Park.
The Celtic tradition of Imbolc, which involves lighting candles at the beginning of February, dates back to the 10th century AD.
The Christian Church later expanded this idea into the festival of Candlemas, which commemorates the moment the Virgin Mary went to the Temple in Jerusalem 40 days after Jesus’ birth to present him to God as his firstborn.
On that feast day, priests would bless and distribute all the candles needed for winter—and over time the focus of the day grew to be about predicting how long winter would last. An English folk song reads: “If Candlemas is fair and bright / Come, winter, another flight; If Candlemas brings clouds and rain / Winter is winter, and comes no more.”
Germany went a step further by making animals – specifically hedgehogs – part of the proceedings. If a hedgehog sees his shadow, there will be a “second winter” or six weeks of bad weather, according to German belief.
It was one of many traditions brought to America by German settlers in Pennsylvania, Herman says, along with Christmas trees and the Easter bunny. And because hedgehogs aren’t native to America, they turned to groundhogs (which were plentiful in Pennsylvania) instead.
“And the first celebration we know of was in 1880,” Herman says. “But while the idea of watching animals and whether they see their shadows from hibernation was already around, it didn’t become a public celebration until later in the 19th century.”
The “Punxsutawney Groundhog Club” was founded in 1886 by a group of groundhog hunters, one of whom was the editor of the town’s newspaper, and soon published an announcement about its local weather forecasting groundhog (although Phil didn’t get his name until 1961). . The first Gobbler’s Knob ceremony took place the following year, and the rest is history.
The club says Groundhog Day today is the same as when it first started — if the old-time costumes and scrolls are any indication — only with more participants. That nickname is thanks in large part to the movie’s popularity and ability to broadcast festivals live.
And there are a lot of cute forecasters out there too. Many parts of the US and Canada now have their own cute animal prognosticators, with some of Phil’s famous contemporaries including New York’s “Staten Island Chuck” (aka Charles G. Hogue) and Ontario’s “Weirton Willie.”
“Any place that has a groundhog these days is trying to get some [cred] out of it,” says Blumstein.
It’s not just groundhogs that are getting in on the fun. Take for example: Pisgah Pete, a white squirrel in North Carolina, Scramble the Duck in Connecticut and a beaver named “Stompton Phil” at the Oregon Zoo.
There are a few things animals can teach us about the weather
According to Blumstein, there is some scientific basis for the Candlemas lore.
He says that if there was a high-pressure system in early February, things are unlikely to change and it will continue to be cold, while a low-pressure system suggests the possibility of good weather ahead. Also, if it’s sunny, marmots are theoretically good enough to stand and cast shade.
But that alone does not make them reliable forecasters.
“Whether it’s sunny on Groundhog Day and spring comes sooner or later, I don’t know,” says Blumstein, adding that Phil’s predictions “involve him whispering to people in stovepipe hats.” In front of a drunken crowd, so you can’t really believe it.”
Still, he says there’s a lot people can learn from the behavior of groundhogs. He runs a long-term project that is about to enter its 62nd year studying yellow-bellied marmots in Colorado, as a window into longevity and how the resilient animals respond to warmer climates.
“Maybe it’s a good thing for marmots that you have a long growing season, but then you’re active every day, you also face some risk of predation,” he explains. “And what we’re finding is there’s a kind of optimal period that you have to be active. So there may be evolutionary responses to this, and what we’re really looking at is an evolutionary response to timing and sequence changes. Within-generation plasticity, resilience, if you want.”
As part of that research, Blumstein spends time on skis in the snow, waiting for yellow-bellied marmots to emerge from hibernation.
So he’s able to confirm that Groundhog Day is pegged to Candlemas, which coincides with the time of year when groundhogs begin to appear in the northeastern US. Males usually come out first and then start looking for females to mate with.
“Groundhog Day is really a holiday about sex,” he adds.
All animals, not just predictors, deserve respect, says Blumstein. While some people consider groundhogs a nuisance because they like to snack on garden produce, he thinks living with urban and suburban wildlife is a good thing because it brings people closer to nature.
“So, if you’re lucky enough to have a groundhog living in your backyard, pay attention to it and enjoy it and learn from it and spare some of your tomatoes or apples.”
Technology improves, but people still look to Phil
Crowds of as many as 30,000 have flocked to Punxsutawney for the multi-day Groundhog Day festivities, which the state calls a significant tourism boost for the town of fewer than 6,000 people.
The ceremony itself — which returned to the stage last year after a COVID-19 hiatus — features dancers, music, speeches and visitors from around the world.
“To have so many nationalities come together in one place to remember something from the medieval past and premodern times and bring music and food and culture—it’s a really uplifting event,” Harman says.
He has a theory as to why Groundhog Day became and remains so popular in the US.
“Throughout history, whenever there’s been a real strong emphasis on science, its intuition, instinct, emotion, imagination — the right side of our brain — gets pushed back a little bit,” Herman says, explaining that Groundhog Day started right. Around the time of the Industrial Revolution.
He says that those massive social and technological changes fueled a desire to return to simpler times that people envisioned in the form of things like literary romanticism and Gothic Revival architecture.
Punxsutawney Phil’s handlers, known as the “inner circle,” continue to wear dark tuxedos, long tails and top hats today, he points out. At the same time, technological advances have made us less prone to weather changes: people once looked to the stars and the sun to determine the time of day or year; Now they look down at their cell phone screens.
Getting caught up in culture is important, as is embracing a new culture, Harman says. He thinks that in time there will be “some happy ground” — and it may already be in Punxsutawney.
“I strongly suspect that the people who go to Gobbler’s Knob are fully aware of the power of science, but at the same time want to hold on to tradition and deep emotion,” he says. “There is instinct and intuition and imagination in every human being that must come into balance with reason and logic.”