In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Joe Biden will tout his achievements and issue a new call for bipartisan legislation in a divided Congress.
Behind him will be California’s new Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the Republican who leads a fractious and conservative House majority with the power to green-light or thwart Biden’s best-laid plans.
A White House official said Biden would sign “transformative” new legislation over the past two years and called for continuing that progress “by working together in the year ahead.”
“Underpinning all of this, the president will once again exude his confidence that Democrats and Republicans can work together, as they did over the past two years and as he continues to work with this new Congress on behalf of the American people at large.” Committed to working for the people,” said the White House official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the content of Biden’s speech.
The speech highlights a challenge for Biden: what can realistically pass in the Republican-controlled House and Democratic-led Senate — and creating a fertile environment for it.
The legislative agenda for the next two years is divided into three categories: viable areas for common ground, ambitious goals where the parties are perhaps too far apart to reach consensus, and items needed to avoid a government shutdown or economic crisis must pass.
Deal opportunities
Asked what issues they can find common ground on, the most common word lawmakers answer is: China.
The issue escalated after the US shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US coastline. House Republicans have formed a Select Committee on US-China Relations. The chair, Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., and top Democrat, Rep. Raja Krishnamurthy, D-Ill., have both called for a consensus approach to countering China’s rise. But it remains to be seen whether the issue will lead to bipartisan legislation or become a political football.
A senior House Republican aide said there may be limited opportunities for cooperation on energy as well, noting that the House passed legislation earlier this year to freeze access to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A Senate GOP aide said there could be another attempt to overhaul permitting requirements for energy and infrastructure projects.
A Senate Democratic aide added bitcoin and cryptocurrency to the list: “A lot of people have a lot of egg on their faces and the ideological lines on crypto are not so firm.”
Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, R-PA, co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, cited three areas where he sees opportunities for legislative action: “Mental health and addiction. Dealing with China Semiconductors and artificial intelligence.”
Rep. Josh Gottheimer, DN.J., his Democratic co-chairman, said possibilities include opioid addiction, mental health and building on the domestic manufacturing and China competition law that passed last year with “Chips 2.0.” He said there are “a bunch of common sense issues” that present opportunities.
But others are more pessimistic. Asked what the prospects are for common ground, a House GOP aide replied: “Not much.” The aide cited China taking action and addressing the fentanyl crisis.
Issues that face long odds
Given the strong conservative leanings of the new GOP majority, the list of issues that will be on full display on the 15 ballots for McCarthy to be speaker is long.
It begins with Biden’s ambitious agenda in his first two years — primarily the economic and safety net items in his Build Back Better package that were left on the cutting room floor because of opposition from Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. were given. This includes issues such as child care, paid leave, cash payments to families and programs to phase out fossil fuels.
Biden and nearly all Democrats want to raise taxes on corporations and upper earners to bring in more revenue, but many of those proposals were rejected last year by Sen. Kirsten Sinema, D-Ariz.
While Democrats secured the 51st Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections, those ideas died when the new Republican-controlled House arrived in the next two years.
Biden’s renewed call for stricter gun violence prevention laws is also playing spoilsport with Republicans.
There is some chatter about immigration reform, but the two sides have different priorities about how to go about it. The issue has troubled Biden’s three immediate predecessors, and even in a less partisan environment, many allies of both parties are pessimistic about reaching an agreement even on a limited bill.
And from the GOP perspective, legislation passed by the House to repeal Biden-backed measures such as additional IRS funding would not survive the Democratic-led Senate or Biden’s veto pen. Conservative goals on the border, education and a host of cultural issues would also be a tough sell without a deal.
Must pass bill
The biggest pass bill on the agenda includes the debt ceiling, which Congress must meet by the June 5 deadline or risk economic disaster, according to the Treasury Department. So far, Biden and McCarthy are at an impasse — the president insists it is non-negotiable and McCarthy again had no specific spending cuts in a speech about the debt ceiling on Monday.
McCarthy said, “Defaulting on our debt is not an option.” “But neither is a future of high taxes, high interest rates and an economy that doesn’t work for working Americans.”
There is also government funding, which ends on 30 September.
Fitzpatrick identified several other “necessary steps in legislation” on which Congress would need to find a resolution: reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration, as well as the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and Section 702, which allows the US to track suspected terrorists overseas. allows for espionage. ,
A Senate Democratic aide said farm policy that includes growers and producers is another opening given the need to pass a farm bill that could tie into competition from China and egg prices.
Some view the bills that must pass as a vehicle to advance priorities, given the limited legislation that will travel from Capitol Hill to the White House for enactment. “I don’t expect this to be a very productive Congress in terms of legislation,” the Democratic aide said, adding that the next two years will be more critical in terms of protecting and implementing Biden’s laws.