For the time being at least, the biggest swing state in the country is becoming one of the least known.
Due to its reputation as a crucial state for presidential candidates, Florida has long hosted sizable candidate gatherings, surrogate events, and large donations from across the country that support nonstop campaign commercials in the state’s ten pricey media markets.
But for the first time in recent political memory, the 2024 presidential contest has left Florida as a comparative afterthought. Although Democrats have made an effort to keep up the momentum and voter fervor in this area, almost all quantifiable factors suggest that Florida is not a serious contender for them in this year’s presidential race.
Are you content that our state is firmly Republican? It used to be …presidential elections, we would be on a razor’s edge regarding the state of Florida,” Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, told a crowd of the party faithful at a gathering last weekend at the Hard Rock Casino in South Florida. “Since Republicans could not win Florida, there was no possibility for you to win the Electoral College.”
Republicans have amassed a voter registration advantage of over a million, and they continue to hold a tight grip on almost all political power levers, which has kept Florida firmly red at the state level for a considerable amount of time. However, the state was seen to be winnable by Democrats in the past when enormous sums of money were donated during presidential contests.
That money has virtually disappeared:
AdImpact, a media buy tracking website, reports that more than $57 million was spent on Florida TV commercials in September 2020 alone, with $38 million coming from President Joe Biden’s campaign and $19 million from the Donald Trump campaign.
National Democratic organizations spent $2 million in the state in the 2022 non-presidential election cycle, compared to over $60 million in the previous midterm election.
TV advertisements for the presidential campaign have cost a total of $2.1 million thus far in the 2024 election cycle.
An AdImpact analysis of Florida’s plummeting political ad spending totals states, “The decline in spending is consistent with the Cook Political Report’s election ratings, which show that the statewide contests were not as close as they once were.”
The Florida Democratic Party coined the slogan “something is happening in Florida” in 2024, a reference to the fact that nobody is betting on them to win the state but that there are some indicators that, in their opinion, are cause for hope for the party’s overall infrastructure and success this year as well.
“Thanks to our efforts and the grassroots momentum, Florida will be competitive in 2024,” stated Eden Giagnorio, director of communications for the FLDP. “Now imagine what we could achieve with real investment.”
To date, the party has made 3.1 million phone calls, 1.3 million door knocks, and more than 10.9 million text messages. The party also highlights the fact that numerous school board candidates supported by DeSantis were defeated in Florida’s Aug. 20 primary, marking the governor’s first significant setback in years.
A document distributed by the Florida Democratic Party stated, “In the first genuine test of this election cycle, Ron DeSantis was humiliated by our organizing structure, which stands in stark contrast to the Trump operation, which is essentially nonexistent in Florida.”
The Republican Party of Florida Chairman, Evan Power, claims that the Harris campaign’s claim that it had 40,000 volunteers in the state is exaggerated.
We keep our ground game under wraps. They exploit Nikki Fried’s make-believe volunteer numbers,” he stated, referring to the Florida Democratic Party chairwoman.
Danielle Alvarez, a senior aide to Trump, claimed that Florida is “Trump Country.”
Public pollsters have continued to be interested in Florida, and their surveys have given Democrats a boost in their messaging and a glimpse of hope. The majority of recent public surveys have shown Trump leading Harris by 5 to 7 points, but the Morning Consult Poll, which was released last week, showed Trump leading Harris by just 2 percentage points.
Democrats have interpreted those results from public polling as evidence of momentum, but the majority of public polling has consistently placed the state outside of the 3.2-point margin Trump won in 2020—a significant victory at the time in a state where presidential contests have historically been decided by eerily narrow margins.
Veteran Florida Democrat Steve Schale contended that while the state party can still make some gains in the long run even in the event of a Harris loss, an outright victory is still difficult given the low level of expenditure in the state.
Schale added, “To the people who keep asking me if Harris can win here, the answer is complicated.” “Their math just does not work through Florida, therefore the answer is almost probably no without the amount of spend you need to earn a win.”
While acknowledging that Harris has an uphill battle in Florida, he said he is “realistic” about the situation and added that Democrats in the state may find hope no matter what happens.
Schale remarked, “My greatest wish is that every volunteer here goes out and registers voters.” “We will have succeeded if we can reconstruct durable, practical infrastructure.”
Since Harris took Biden’s position as the Democratic nominee in July, her campaign has visited the state, but not before.
Following the debate on Tuesday night, Harris’s campaign is organizing a swing state tour that will include stops in Florida. However, her husband, Doug Emhoff, will be hosting the rally in the Orlando region, rather than Harris. Allies of Harris’ campaign launched the “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour in Florida last week, which Democrats hailed as an indication of the party’s national significance.