According to a second survey by J. Ann Selzer, former president Donald Trump currently leads his closest Republican competitors in Iowa by over 30 points, with two-thirds of probable GOP caucus attendees downplaying the seriousness of his legal difficulties.
Ahead of the GOP caucuses on January 15, Iowa Republicans continue to support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is now tied for second place in the poll.
Even still, the poll reveals that Trump’s followers are more fervent and committed to their choice than Haley’s and DeSantis’, and that Republican caucus attendees are split on whether Trump should continue to lead the party.
“I had a lot better life while Trump was president. Things were less expensive, I felt comfortable, and he supported my parents and the farmers. Respondent Kendall Pelzer, 53, of Bettendorf, Iowa, stated that “things were better—plain and simple.” Pelzer is a supporter for Trump.
Selzer, who has spent the last three decades surveying Iowans, declared: “This is a good poll for Donald Trump.” Despite everything that has transpired since the last survey, he remains the clear leader in the field, and his position has actually become better since August.
The Iowa poll, which was conducted by NBC News, the Des Moines Register, and Mediacom, took place from October 22 to Thursday. This was a turbulent time in the 2024 election cycle, with the Middle East war raging, Trump facing more legal challenges, and the GOP field getting ready for its next presidential debate on November 8.
As to the survey, 43% of probable Republican caucus attendees picked Trump as their top choice, followed by DeSantis (16%), Haley (16%), and DeSantis (16%).
Which Republican would you pick right away to be the next president?
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina comes in second at 7%, followed by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie in a tie at 4%.
(The poll was conducted before former Vice President Mike Pence’s announcement on Saturday that he was suspending his presidential campaign. As a result, the results were hardly affected; Pence’s 2% of the vote was reassigned to the second-choice candidates of those who participated in the caucuses.)
Trump’s lead of 27 points is an increase from the August NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom survey, in which DeSantis trailed Trump by 23 points, 42% to 19%. Twice as long ago, Haley was at 6%.
According to the most recent study, Trump has a significant lead over nearly every demographic group, including self-described Republicans, evangelical Christians, first-time caucus attendees, and past caucus attendees.
Among self-described independents, who can enter the caucuses provided they switch to Republican registration, he has a slightly smaller lead.
Large numbers yet taking into account Scott, Haley, and DeSantis
A significant portion of Iowa Republicans indicate they are considering DeSantis, Haley, and Scott despite Trump’s overall advantage.
DeSantis is ranked as the second choice by 27% of probable caucus attendees, and 25% of them indicate they are actively considering him.
As far as the moral side of life is concerned, I admire his position on abortion, said Norwalk, Iowa resident Roxi Gillen, 60.
17% of prospective caucus attendees rank Haley as their second choice and 22% more say they are actively considering her.
Iowa Republicans are seriously considering four candidates
Kristy Beckwith, 60, of Ankeny, Iowa, said, “I feel like she’s fresh, and I liked what she said regarding the things that she accomplished as governor of South Carolina— I mean… she’s a strong woman.”
Furthermore, 10% of respondents cite Scott as their second option, while 32% say they are actively considering him.
Just 41% of caucusgoers say their minds are made up
A majority of anticipated caucus attendees—54%—say they may be convinced to modify their first-choice selections, which raises the possibility of ambiguity surrounding the upcoming Iowa caucuses.
In contrast, 41% claim to have made up their minds.
However, similar to the survey conducted in August, Trump’s fans are far more committed to their pick than those who are supporting DeSantis or Haley.
Approximately one-third of DeSantis and Haley fans believe their opinions are entirely made up, in contrast to the staggering 63% of Trump supporters who think the same.
Selzer, the Iowa pollster, said, “This is a reminder of just how locked in these Trump supporters are.”
Furthermore, according to the survey, Trump’s followers are far more enthused about their candidate than other caucus attendees.
In general, 30% of probable Republican caucus attendees report being “extremely” excited about their initial choices.
However, when it comes to the individual, 47% of Trump’s fans are fervently passionate about their choice, whereas this percentage drops to 25% for DeSantis and 19% for Haley.
Most caucus attendees ignore Trump’s legal troubles
According to the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, 65% of probable caucus attendees believe that Trump can defeat President Joe Biden in a general election, regardless of the obstacles he faces in the judicial system.
In contrast, 32% believe that Trump’s legal challenges will almost certainly prevent him from defeating Biden.
The majority of Iowa Republicans believe that despite Biden’s legal issues, Trump can defeat him
Caucus attendees are split on whether Trump should continue to lead their party, though.
The percentage of prospective Republican caucus attendees who think he should is thirty-nine percent, down from forty-one percent in August.
Another 28% of caucus attendees believe that while Trump was a good president, it’s time to look at other candidates.
And 32% believe that a new leader with improved behavior and a fresh strategy is what the Republican Party needs.
Other discoveries
63% of prospective Republican caucus attendees say they base their choice of candidates more on the issues, while 29% think personality and leadership style play a bigger role.
DeSantis (69% favorable, 26% unfavorable), Scott (61% favorable, 22% unfavorable), Trump (66% favorable, 32% unfavorable), and Haley (59% favorable, 29% unfavorable) are the most popular GOP candidates according to net favorable ratings.
Christie (20% favorable, 69% unfavorable) and Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas (17% favorable, 45% unfavorable), are the least popular.
Pence’s favorability rating among prospective GOP caucus attendees was 32% in the completed poll, compared to 65% unfavorable, prior to his campaign suspension.