South Carolina has long been one of the most important early primary states. Over the past 40 years, the winner of the state’s GOP primary has won the party’s presidential nomination in every election except one.
For 2024, state political leaders say they expect a truly unpredictable environment, with the state taking center stage. State Republicans are getting ready to choose between two “favorite kids,” a former president who has already carried the state in an intense contest and potentially the other who seeks to attract significant interest.
Dorchester County GOP chairman Steven Wright said former President Donald Trump “is still very popular” in the state. “It is still to be determined whether this popularity is cemented. But I would say we’re very excited with the primary that’s shaping up. I think there will be no coronation in South Carolina. Our vote is not guaranteed to anyone.
Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, as well as the former governor of South Carolina, announced her bid for the presidency in a video statement on Tuesday, making her the second major candidate to jump into a primary aside from Trump. Became who announced after last year’s midterm elections that he was running. He is expected to deliver a speech in Charleston on Wednesday.
The next day, Sen. Tim Scott, R-SC, who appears to be building the infrastructure of his own presidential campaign, is speaking to the Charleston County GOP before embarking on a listening tour that will take him to Iowa well, the first state on the 2024 calendar.
Entries of prominent South Carolina politicians could play a major role not only in the 2024 race but especially in their home state, which has dominated presidential elections over the past 40 years. Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina GOP primary has won the party’s nomination in every cycle except 2012, when former House Speaker Newt Gingrich ultimately defeated GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
The admissions of Haley and Scott, who have both won multiple statewide races and earned reputations as rising stars within the party, could ultimately split votes among South Carolinians who want the party to move beyond Trump and more Turned to traditional conservatives – increased their chances of winning another primary. In 2016, Trump won the primary with 33% of the vote, defeating Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, who both won 22%. No primary was held in 2020.
“Do they steal from each other? And then, does Trump benefit from it?” asked Mick Mulvaney, a former member of Congress from South Carolina who was Trump’s acting White House chief of staff. “On a micro level, does it make you wonder if Tim Scott is backing Nikki Haley or away from Donald Trump? And then Nikki The same happens with Haley.”
But Mulvaney said the dynamics of the primary taking shape may not be the final blow to such a scenario for either the Haley or Scott campaigns.
“Does it feel bad to finish third in your home state? Perhaps. But maybe this is different,” he said. “Usually, if you come in third in your home state, it’s the kiss of death. But this time, I think people recognize that it’s unusual that you’ve got a former president and two of the state’s most popular Politicians have met.
South Carolina primary voter turnout is limited. In January, an agile strategy survey conducted for the South Carolina Policy Council found Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis led Trump by nearly 20 points in a head-to-head matchup (the poll reported a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points).
Meanwhile, recent national polls have found Trump with a significant lead over DeSantis or have closed DeSantis’ earlier gap. In a Monmouth University poll released last week, DeSantis and Trump were tied after trailing Trump by 13 points in December. The poll, which reported a margin of error of 6.1 percentage points, recorded only 1% support for Haley. Scott was not included.
South Carolina Republicans who spoke with NBC News said they’ve noted voters have gained interest in DeSantis, while people look forward to seeing a prominent Republican appear alongside Haley at her Wednesday kickoff speech. Yes or No. Last month, Trump appeared in the state with Governor Henry McMaster, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, and Republican Rep. Joe Wilson, among others.
Wright said, “As far as I’ve heard, no one is calling Gov. Haley or Sen. Scott jumping into the race, somehow their calculus changes who they’re going to support.” “I think people want to hear from all the candidates.”
Barbara Nielsen, a former state superintendent of education, said that residents “respect” Haley as governor “and will listen to what she has to say” and that she also has “great respect” for Scott and the work he has done. There is a demand for compromise on the opportunity sector and police reform. But she says she’s seeing more and more enthusiasm for a potential DeSantis bid from someone else.
“Nikki and Tim are both homegrown,” she said, adding that both will be able to raise significant money for a presidential bid. “So he’ll have a huge following here.”
Wright said many people are waiting to see who jumps in, with Trump and DeSantis most interested. But he noted the historic nature of Haley and Scott’s previous victories in the state — Haley was the first woman and black elected governor, while Scott was the first black senator elected in the state — and said they were formidable politicians.
“But I will say, Gov. Haley and Sen. Scott,” he continued, “they were both long shots when they first ran for office. And I wouldn’t want to underestimate either of them.
Trump tested his clout in the state last year, to mixed results. They demanded the removal of the then Rep. He was successful in defeating Tom Rice and Rice in the primary after Rice voted in favor of his impeachment following the January 6 attack on the Capitol. At the same time, after her bid to defeat Rep. Nancy Mace failed, Haley offered Mace her full support.
“I think, certainly, people here are willing to consider options other than Trump,” Mulvaney said.
Haley must navigate a tumultuous history with Trump. In 2016, she clashed with then-candidate Trump before joining his cabinet nine months later. Then, after Trump left the White House, he vowed not to run for president if he ran again, only to prepare a bid against him anyway.
A significant portion of Republican voters not only favor the former president but are also open to his false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election. As Nielsen put it: “We still have people who are contesting the last election.”
“You can’t go to a county meeting and have some woman stand up and start yelling about paper ballots,” she said, adding that there needs to be more.
While South Carolina will receive considerable attention with Trump, Haley, and possibly Scott in the race, Mulvaney said some contenders may be bypassing the state to invest more heavily in other early primaries.
“You have to ask yourself, if you’re Mike Pompeo or, to a lesser extent, if you’re Ron DeSantis, do you really spend any time here?” They said. “Why spend a lot of time and money fighting on the fourth?”