An ongoing battle between China and the Philippines over uninhabited reefs has the potential to escalate and involve the United States.
A mutual defense treaty between Washington and the Philippines, an ally of the United States, states that an attack on the Philippines would activate Washington’s decades-old commitment to defend the country. The conflicting claims in the strategically significant South China Sea have resulted in a number of maritime encounters between China and the Philippines.
The United States has reaffirmed its military commitment to the Philippines, particularly against any attack in the South China Sea, which Beijing effectively claims in its whole, and denounced what it refers to as China’s “escalatory and irresponsible” acts.
Controlling the South China Sea is a matter of food, energy, and power: the region is home to massive oil and gas reserves beneath its seabed, is an essential fishing ground for millions of people, and is thought to be the route taken by one-third of all world shipping. A portion of the South China Sea is also claimed by Brunei, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
In the most recent incident, the Philippine military reported earlier this month that two Chinese air force jets had engaged in “dangerous and provocative actions” by dropping flares in the route of a Philippine military transport plane that was doing a regular patrol over the Scarborough Shoal. Since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office as president in 2022, this was the first occasion the Philippines has voiced complaints regarding provocative conduct by Chinese aircraft as opposed to Chinese ships.
China retorted that, in spite of several warnings, the Philippine airliner had unlawfully entered Chinese airspace.
Concerning what they claim to be dangerous actions by Chinese ships and planes in the South China Sea, the United States and other nations have also voiced their complaints. China claims that the US’s “close-in reconnaissance” using US jets and ships has put both regional stability and Chinese national sovereignty at jeopardy.
The hotspots
There are two primary areas of contention in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines; both are located within the country’s exclusive economic zone, but Beijing maintains territorial claims over both. The first is the mostly underwater Scarborough Shoal, an atoll with abundant fisheries. For over ten years, the area has been occupied by fishing vessels and the Chinese Coast Guard.
China and the Philippines have been at odds over Manila’s attempts to replenish a rusting World War II-era cruiser that it purposefully ran aground there in 1999 to bolster its territorial claims. The other is the Second Thomas Shoal. Since then, the Philippines has maintained a small contingent of sailors aboard the Sierra Madre.
Particularly over the Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines conducts frequent resupply missions, tensions have increased. Although Beijing has largely not interfered with the humanitarian supplies being sent to the Filipino sailors aboard the ship, it is vehemently opposed to the construction materials being sent, as they could strengthen a vessel Beijing would prefer to see rust away.
China has been accused by the Philippines of using more aggressive methods to obstruct the resupply sorties since last year. These techniques include the deployment of military-grade lasers and water cannons.
China, on the other hand, believes that the Philippines’ actions in the region are becoming more aggressive. Beijing claims waterways, and on June 15, new regulations went into effect enforcing a legislation from 2021 authorizing the Chinese Coast Guard to use lethal force against foreign ships in those waters.
Eight Filipino sailors were hurt in a confrontation between Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine vessels two days later while on a resupply trip to the Sierra Madre. One man lost his thumb. The Chinese Coast Guard, according to the Philippine military, crashed, tow, and forcibly entered two of its inflatable boats, endangering lives and causing damage to the craft that were transporting food and weaponry for the sailors on the Sierra Madre.
China said that its measures were reasonable and legal, despite the Philippine vessels having entered its seas unlawfully.
The two nations declared in July that they had reached a provisional agreement, the specifics of which have not been made public, to prevent similar confrontations around the Second Thomas Shoal.
According to experts, since that accord, tensions have decreased, and the Philippines finished its first unhindered resupply trip to the Sierra Madre late last month. However, the fundamental conflict has not been settled, and the state of affairs is still precarious.
International response?
According to Gilberto Teodoro, the defense secretary of the Philippines, the Chinese story has “no international support whatsoever.” China has never complied with the 2016 verdict of an international tribunal in The Hague, which declared Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea to be unfounded.
Teodoro declared last week that “brutal force, strength, and might are all they have on their side.”
With the goal of bolstering its maritime claims, Manila has strengthened its security relationships with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other countries.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Manila last month and announced a $500 million military aid pledge from the United States. Blinken and Austin described the cash as “unprecedented” and said it “sends a clear message of support for the Philippines.”
The Chinese Defense Ministry accused the United States of “stirring up trouble” when questioned about it on Friday.
The possibility of direct US engagement in his country’s conflicts with China has been played down by Marcos, who has brought the Philippines closer to the United States than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who supported China. However, the United States and China would like not to have to invoke the mutual defense pact between the United States and the Philippines in the event of a Filipino fatality.
Given that the United States is currently embroiled in wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, armed confrontation in the region would be particularly unwanted.
Director of the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute, an independent Australian think tank, Susannah Patton stated “Because it is overburdened, the United States does not want to fight China, especially not in the South China Sea.”