Republicans brave the cold and snow as Trump aims for an early victory in the Iowa caucus

Republicans brave the cold and snow as Trump aims for an early victory in the Iowa caucus
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On Monday, the Republican contenders for president set out for their last, bitterly cold day of campaigning in Iowa, where Donald Trump is the clear front-runner to win the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

Due to the former president’s overwhelming influence, Iowa’s race to become the top state has become a contest for second place, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley vying for the title of chief rival to Trump.

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It’s time for the show to begin. At a Des Moines diner, Haley told supporters, “This is what we’ve been waiting for.”

A resounding win in Iowa would support Trump’s claim that he is the only Republican contender qualified to challenge Democratic President Joe Biden in November.

It would also be problematic for his rivals, particularly DeSantis, who has staked his campaign on the Iowa caucus on Monday, sending teams and resources there and canvassing all 99 of the state’s counties.

A third-place result might be disastrous for DeSantis’ chances. With eight days to go until Republicans select their nominee in the more moderate state of New Hampshire, polls place the governor of Florida well behind both Trump and Haley.

Though neither DeSantis nor Haley has declared a winner, they have both stated that they are confident they will perform better than expected in Iowa.

DeSantis declared on CNN “I am the candidate who is going to be the change agent in Washington, D.C.” before leaving for his last day of campaigning.

According to a person familiar with the situation, Trump will meet with staff and conduct radio interviews throughout the day. Before going to his watch party in Des Moines, he is anticipated to visit one caucus location in the evening.

CROSSOVER VOTERS, WEATHER

The campaigns had to postpone several events over the weekend due to the dangerously low temperatures affecting the Midwest, which may also reduce attendance on Monday.

In contrast to a traditional election, voters in Iowa must physically congregate in small groups at churches, schools, and community centers on Monday night to cast secret ballots following remarks from campaign representatives.

According to Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann, these speeches may be especially important this time around because so many events had to be postponed by candidates because of bad weather.

Tuesday’s caucus meetings are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. CST (0100 GMT), with results anticipated a few hours later.

Unknown numbers of Democratic voters in the state have registered as Republicans in an attempt to sway the outcome of the caucuses, making them another possible wild card.

One such “crossover voter,” Toni Van Voorhis, 65, plans to support Haley. “I only want to be able to look back and say I did what could have been done to keep Donald Trump from getting elected,” she stated.

To conduct party business, Iowa Democrats will hold their caucuses. However, because the party rearranged the nomination calendar this year to prioritize states with more diverse populations over Iowa, Iowa Democrats will not cast ballots for other presidential candidates on Monday. Voting will take place by mail, and the results will be announced in March.

Later on Monday, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and entertainment mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg—who also serves as Biden’s campaign co-chair—will speak in Iowa.

In certain areas of the state, the wind chill could drop as low as minus 45 degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 43 degrees Celsius, according to the National Weather Service’s prediction.

Record numbers of people participated in the 2016 Republican caucus, casting roughly 187,000 ballots, or about 29% of the state’s registered Republican voters. In 2012, Republican turnout was closer to 18%.

If the freezing temperatures persuade some voters to stay at home, Trump might have an advantage because of his hold on his most devoted followers. According to a survey conducted on Saturday, a much larger percentage of Trump’s supporters were “extremely” or “very” excited about voting on Monday.

Owing to its early position on the campaign calendar, Iowa has historically had a disproportionate impact on presidential elections. A bad showing in a campaign can lead to the end of many, as candidates have often spent months traveling the state and meeting voters.

In the two elections prior, the state-supported Democrat Barack Obama, but it turned decisively in favor of Trump in 2016 and 2020.

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